Sunday Morning Bloody Mary: Why Patriots-Bears Isn't As Important As You Think

by John B on Dec 12, 2010 10:47 AM EST

We should root for the Chicago Bears today. The off chance of a New England Patriots collapse would be a very good thing. However, the Patriots will still be in control of the AFC East even if they lose today. The NFL tiebreaking procedures spell this out clearly.

Say the Jets win out then the Patriots lose today but win their last three games. Both teams would finish 13-3. The first tiebreaker is head to head. The two teams split. The second is record in the division. Both teams would have beaten Miami and Buffalo once more to finish 5-1 in the AFC East. The third tiebreaker would be record in common games. They would both finish 10-2. The fourth tiebreaker would be conference record. Both would finish at 10-2 in the AFC. The fifth tiebreaker is strength of victory or record of teams they have won against.

If the Jets go 13-3, the teams they would have won against currently own a 66-90 record. If the Pats lose today and win their last three, their wins would have come over teams with a combined record of 72-85. That might not seem like a lot, but it will be difficult for there to be much movement in the Jets' direction. Remember, the Jets and Pats play 14 common games, which means the majority of their wins overlap and thus do the Jets no good. These wins help the Pats as much as the Jets. Even the teams the Jets have beaten that the Patriots have not have games to play against other teams the Jets have beaten, which mitigates the good some of their potential victories could do Gang Green.

The bottom line is that the Jets will still need help to win the division no matter what happens in Chicago. The path will be a bit easier with a Bears win, but the clearest path is for Gang Green to win out and for the Pats to drop one to either Miami or Buffalo, which would give the division tiebreaker to New York.

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Comments

Of course we should root for the Bears, by dumb luck my 2 teams have to play the Pats back to back weeks. The only thing worse then losing to the Pats is losing to them twice….go bears.

In an Ideal world I would have all ten fingers on my left hand so my right hand could just be a fist for punching.

by BL3ACH on Dec 12, 2010 11:04 AM EST reply actions

I am a HUGE Bears fan!!

for the next 12 hours only.

Nasty weather, frozen turf there today.

by James Calvin on Dec 12, 2010 11:04 AM EST reply actions

I knew this thats why I was hoping Indy lost Thursday

Winning the division is suicide for the Jets. The last thing they need is time off. However, if winning the division means the Pats don’t, then I’m all for it. If they lose to Chicago, then i feel Green Bay can take them too. Green Bay has the offense that can go toe to toe with the Pats, and they are going to really need that game. I’m more worry about the Jets winning out. This team has not played good since the first half of the Viking game. That is a long time ago. The only chance of the Jets winning the division is for them to win out and the Pats to lose their next two. Forget about Buffalo and Miami playing spoilers.

by BIG OH!!!!! on Dec 12, 2010 11:09 AM EST reply actions

I agree if they lose today things don’t look great for them with the packers. The packers are a bad match-up for them with their zone blitzes and elite QB play.

by Crackback on Dec 12, 2010 11:13 AM EST via mobile up reply actions