Explaining the Trend: Trading Pro-Bowlers for Late-Round Picks
by Ryan Alfieri on Oct 8, 2010 11:40 AM EDT
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PrintLately, we've seen quality talent in the NFL being traded away for seemingly nothing; mostly lower-round picks. Santonio Holmes was acquired for a fifth round pick, Randy Moss was dealt for a third round pick, to name a few examples. However, just a few years ago, Roy Williams was traded to the Cowboys for a first and second round pick. Jay Cutler cost the Bears two firsts and a second. Yes, Jay Cutler is a QB, but I would be surprised if any team is willing to part with it's precious draft picks so readily.
Why the sudden change in compensation for players? Holmes is a much better talent than Roy Williams, so why did Dallas pay such a high premium on him, despite Holmes' pending suspension? In the case of Randy Moss, the Patriots are gambling that the player they get in the 3rd round pick (or if they use it to move up) will at least equal the production of Randy Moss over twelve remaining games. Sure, you can get a good steal in those rounds, but it's pretty easy to miss, never mind match the production with a Hall of Fame player. In the 2007 and 2008 drafts, no third round selections have made the pro bowl.
So why do teams essentially give away these players for a used jock strap? The real answer is simple: Money. Not only do the Patriots not have to pay Randy Moss after this season, but if that player they get in the third round ends up being a starter or contributor of some sort, you only have to pay him third-round compensation; you get more bang for your buck than if you bring in a veteran.
These two drafts, 2010 and 2011, will be as deep as any draft in recent memory. This is due to the fact that a rookie wage scale is on its way, and kids are leaving college early in hopes of cashing in while they still can (Donovan Warren). This, obviously, will push talent that is a first-round grade into the second round, and so on. Therefore, the second round pick is almost as valuable as the first round pick; you get almost equal talent while having to pay significantly less.
While the Chargers are receiving a 3rd round pick for Cromartie, they are actually getting closer to second-round talent for the price of a third round player. Same for the Moss trade, the McNabb trade, and so on. Ultimately, though, it's up to the GMs to make the picks count, or their gambles are all for nothing.
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Yes, especially if Moss has deteriorated beyond his reputational perception. But even still, even if his deterioration is only minimal, the Pats’ offense is more potent without him. Too often Brady wasted downs trying to connect with Moss on a big one (‘07 style). They are much more efficient when they’re spreading it around and dinking and dunking. They have a bunch of guys that are quick with the ball and can steal yards before defenses react. And they also have two young TEs that are formidable red-zone threats.
Yeah it would be nice to have Randy steal a safety so you can work underneath. But he had made it perfectly clear that playing the decoy wasn’t going to sit well with him after the first game. So with getting a 3rd for him when it costed you a 4th, and making your offense more efficient, is a win-win for BB.
I don't think it makes their offense more efficient. We're talking about Randy Moss
and replacing him with Brandon Tate. Just having him on your offense makes it more efficient without even having to throw him the ball. Maybe he hated being the decoy, maybe he didn’t mind it. Maybe he was never a decoy and the gameplan/defense just called for other players to be utilized. All that said, Moss never publicly complained of anything in NE, by all accounts he was a perfect citizen, so this trade doesn’t make any sense to me. Even if Randy was unhappy, so what? He has 12 more games until free agency, just play hard and go get paid. I wouldn’t be happy if I were a Pats fan.
It's a sound deal for both teams.
Renting a player like Moss for 12 games at the price of a 3rd round draft pick does have knee jerk reaction of “WTF?”. But considering the behind the backdrop stuff that was going on in NE and the urgency of the Vikings with being in a win now mode, the deal just fits. Did anybody see the hundreds of people at the Yanks Twins game in their Moss jerseys. The town is happy to have him back. More then we could imagine. Good PR move as well.
by colinyoung on Oct 8, 2010 12:11 PM EDT reply actions
Keeping it simple
1. Moss is paid $9M a year. You can sign a 3rd round pick for $9M over 4 years, or less.
2. He is in the last year of a deal the Pats were not going to extend, so get something for him.
3. They only gave Oak. a 4th rounder for him in the first place. So that is pretty good if you can trade a player AND move up in the draft from what it cost you 4 years ago (in his prime)
4. You can tell that Moss either lost a step, or more likely, takes quarters off when he is unhappy. Look at his production this year and you can tell that Moss just wasnt in position to make plays or lost heart during the games. He wants to go, he asked to be traded, and he made it clear to the Pats that he wasnt going to play “Moss” football for them this year.
http://www.charlottejetsfans.com
"They only gave Oak. a 4th rounder for him in the first place."
+1
My thoughts exactly. It goes against the arguement of this article as well since we would assume they acquired him for much higher compensation a few years ago. The Cowboys got ripped on that Roy Williams deal though.
Very good article, Ryan.
Rec’d.
I think both teams made out well, the Vikings in the short-term, Pats in the long-term (but obviously will pay for it this season). Still, they already had no plans to bring him back, and he was starting to become more of a distraction than a leader. So they got two draft picks for it.
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what evidence is there he was distraction?
Why do people keep saying that? Are we just assuming if he got traded he must have been cancerous to the locker room?
He blew up at the QB coach last game, at halftime I believe.
Also got into it with Belichick
There is evidence.
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He has set a presidence.
He was locked out of a team meeting for showing up late last season. He then went to the media and bitched about it. That made national headlines.
He complained about not having a deal going into the lockout year to the media. Saying it was a slap in his face. That made headlines also
And most recently NE reporters are hearing that he got into an altercation with the QB’s coach at halftime of the phins game when they were down 6-7 and he had no touches. Its also speculated the he ignored everybody on the plane ride home including Bill B who tried to talk to him about the game.
It’s not that he shot his way out of town or anything. The team is moving in another direction and it began to involve him less and less. He still thinks that he’s a #1 option who should get the ball more often then not. And the only way he knows how to make his feelings know is to act like a 4yo. Just a team and a player on different pages. Time to move on.
by colinyoung on Oct 8, 2010 5:31 PM EDT up reply actions
Funny, I seem to remember at the time
everybody around here criticizing Belichick for being a dickhead about Moss and a couple other guys who were late to a meeting, defending the guys who were late.
He complained? He said he wanted a new deal, he loved New England and he wanted to finish his career there, but that he didn’t feel like it was likely to happen.
And so now every WR who gets into a heated discussion with a QB coach of all people is a locker room cancer? I guess so. I much prefer Randy Moss off of the Pats them on them.
I think it’s an argument of Chicken or the Egg.
Did Moss start slacking off because he knew the Patriots weren’t going to keep and pay him coming into the season, or did the Pats decide that a slacking off Moss wasn’t worth it.
To me I think the Pats mis-stepped. I believe Moss that he wanted to stay in NE (And why not? They are going to continue to be a championship level team) and had the Pats made moves to prove they wanted to keep him around beyond this year I don’t think he would have been half playing like he was.
Yes the Pats can possibly get (or package the pick for a higher one) a player on the same level of Moss. But your looking at not just this season without Moss or an explosive wide receiver, but possibly 2-3 more as his replacement develops.
Also on the disparity of picks in trades, I think it comes down to the fact that the two big trades involved teams that didn’t have to trade their star player. The Lions didn’t have to trade Roy Williams, and the Broncos didn’t have to trade Cutler. When it’s a trade like that the trader has all the leverage. Meanwhile with both Holmes and Moss their respective teams wanted to get rid of them for any number of reasons.
When will the hurting stop?
Contributor to Lighthouse Hockey not sure if I'm the Sniper or the Enforcer.
The fact is, Moss is old.
He’s got, perhaps 2 more years after this one to play at a high level. So I think that a 3rd round pick, which is probably a late one, is plenty to give up for him. But frankly, I’m surprised that the Cheats, who are swimming in draft picks, would put their current season in jeopardy for a mid-round draft pick. OTOH, if they can turn around and package the pick for another mid-to upper level deep threat wideout, it makes sense. I assume they are already engaged in these sort of conversations with teams that either have a guy who they are not properly using, or have some issues with – Dwayne Bowe and Michael Crabtree spring to mind. Vincent Jackson is a special case, because A.J. Smith wants him to rot on the sidelines all year, and won’t trade him for fair value. This actually scares me, because if they could get a wideout with the talent of a Crabtree – he could absolutely explode in the Pats system with a quality QB (even one with a funny teenage girl’s haircut).
I thought this was a well rounded deal. Anything higher just would not be a good deal mo.
In an Ideal world, I would have all ten fingers on my left hand so my right hand could just be a fist for punching.
I wouldn't have minded a higher pick ;)
But I agree. Even the best wide receivers drop off after their 35th birthday and only a couple ever produce after 36. Moss will be 34 after this season and will be wanting one final payday. The Patriots won’t offer him top dollar that some other team can give him- so why not get some compensation? The Patriots can only get a 5th rounder in the 2012 draft at best as a compensatory pick since Moss has played over 10 seasons, which means that the Patriots are getting a good deal in comparison to letting Moss walk.
The question is: Is Moss worth more or less than trading up 3 rounds in the next draft (I’m equating a possible 5th in 2012 to a 6th in 2011)?
That’s Belichick’s choice. In my opinion, it’s a good deal. 9 of Brady’s past 17 interceptions has been in Moss’s direction. Getting rid of Moss eliminates the the temptation to throw terrible throws down field, which always get picked. I think it’s for the better of the team offense. It might hamper the dagger passes down the field, but it will be better for the overall production of the offense and creating stable drives.
Yeah well thats where I am coming from with the trade. Its BB, he has proven he knows what the heck he is doing for a long time. I don’t think this is longer then a rental for the rest of they year. I could be wrong but I don’t see them bringing Moss back (with the kind of money he wants) when this is more like a band aid because Rice is out.
In an Ideal world, I would have all ten fingers on my left hand so my right hand could just be a fist for punching.
It's because they're old
or troubled. GM’s and owners are moving them while they still feel they can get value for them, even if at a lower price..
No other reason.
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