Jets - Broncos Preview: Soaring High, Gang Green Travels to Invesco Field
by Matt Birch on Oct 16, 2010 2:10 PM EDT
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4-1 has a nice ring to it.
On Friday, the Jets flew to Denver, Co., in hopes of adjusting to the different time zone and extremely high altitude. HC Rex Ryan knows Invesco Field is a tough place to play, especially coming off the short week with a couple of his star players ailing.
Still, the Jets have put themselves in a great position. The current division leader has a shot to go 5-1 with the bye week on deck, so let's discuss how they can do just that.
Between The Numbers:
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Denver ranks No. 32 in NFL in rushing yards (51.8 ypg)
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Jets rank No. 1 in rushing yards (165.2 ypg) while Denver ranks No. 25 against the run (127.4 ypg)
X-Factor: TE Dustin Keller
Keller has been one hell of a matchup problem for opposing defenses this season. If they should choose to double him, the result is single coverage on our wideouts, and it also opens things up for our running game.
Last week, Keller was held to only 2 catches for 14 yards.
Look for a big rebound from the TE this week, as he will be going up against a banged-up secondary that will likely be missing FS Brian Dawkins as well as two other defensive backs.
Pound The Rock:
Jets rank No.1 in rushing offense (165 ypg) and go up against a porous Denver defensive front which ranks No. 25 against the run (127 ypg). I think the offensive line has some extremely favorable matchups and both Tomlinson and Greene should have some big holes to run through on Sunday.
Tomlinson has 76 rushes for 435 yards thus far this season -- 5.7 ypc.
In the fourth quarter of the Miami game, I watched RB Shonn Greene re-gain his confidence and made a point to mention it. The following week, he rushed for 117 yards in Buffalo. After the early fumbles in the Ravens' game, the big fella has now returned to the powerful, downhill runner he is, and I look for Jets to rush for 200+ yards on Sunday. .
Tomlinson has 76 rushes for 435 yards thus far this season -- 5.7 ypc.
In the fourth quarter of the Miami game, I watched RB Shonn Greene re-gain his confidence and made a point to mention it. The following week, he rushed for 117 yards in Buffalo. After the early fumbles in the Ravens' game, the big fella has now returned to the powerful, downhill runner he is, and I look for Jets to rush for 200+ yards on Sunday. .
One Dimensional:
It's safe to say Denver has no running game. They rank dead-last in rushing yards at 51.8 ypg.
Their play selection is predictable. On average, they rush 22.8 times/game and pass 42.6 times/game.
To be successful in the NFL, balance is key and the Broncos are the farthest thing from that. Many overlook how much easier it is to prepare for an offense that is either pass-heavy or run-heavy.
Blitz Early and Often:
This isn't something we have to tell DC Mike Pettine, he's going to do it anyway.
However, in this particular matchup, Jets must bring pressure against Orton and effectively move the pocket. Orton is a pocket passer, if you allow him to sit and throw he will pick your secondary apart. He's not mobile, though, and is not good throwing on the run. If Jets can blitz him from a variety of different angles and gaps they can take him out of a rhythm.
Broncos have allowed 12 sacks this season -- look for Jets to get after Orton. Pettine will likely bring many different looks on Sunday to keep Orton guessing.
Death by Turnover Ratio:
Jets still lead the league in turnover ratio at a phenomenal +11. QB Mark Sanchez has still yet to throw an interception, and the Jets have been the benefactor of such a strong turnover ratio.
Broncos have fumbled 7 times thus far this season. Jets will be looking to strip the young, inexperienced team whenever possible.
Prediction:
I like the Jets to ground-and-pound early and often against a weak Denver defensive front that is suspect against the run. This, in turn, will help them control the clock and dictate the tempo of the game in a tough road environment to play in. Coming off a short week, it's important to keep the defense off the field as much as possible and keep them fresh.
On defense, Jets must press Denver's receivers at the line so Orton can't beat the blitz with some quick timing routes. Communication must be better in the secondary, also. Jets must wrap up and not allow the young, speedy Denver receivers to run free in the open field.
Jets have too many weapons on offense for a banged-up Broncos' defense to defend against. Look for their balance on offense to give Denver fits all day.
Jets 26, Broncos 20
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I'll take that too : )
Our secondary is suspect at the moment with Revis and Coleman ailing… otherwise I’d put them down for about 14-16 also.
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They have a potential aerial attack...
…except that they won’t have time to throw the ball against your front 7.
by Richard Hill on Oct 16, 2010 3:03 PM EDT up reply actions
That's what I'm banking on, bro.
Blitz early and often!
Gang Green Nation Managing Editor --- covering all things NY Jets!
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I hope you're right...
but certain places have a well-earned reputation for being tough to play in and Mile-High, by any name, is one of them. On paper we should win going away and I’m confident we will win but I wouldn’t be surprised to see it a little tighter. As long as 6 stays clean, it’ll be hard for us to lose.
In Rex We Trust
by whatwouldjohncandydo on Oct 16, 2010 10:34 PM EDT up reply actions
i just hope that they pound rock down denvers throat instead of taking the philosophy of doing the opposite of what denver expects and throw the ball. like they did a couple seasons ago in oakland. either way i think the jets will win if they can keep the pressure on orton and force him to throw on the run. our secondary hasnt exactly been on top its game…
by servantofchrist on Oct 16, 2010 3:03 PM EDT reply actions
I hope we stick to the simple plan, like Rex said last year…….we run the football and people know we’re going to run the football but that doesn’t mean they can stop it. Our offensive line, running game is better than their run defense, so run it early and run it often. Lets get Shonn pounding away and LT doing what he does.
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If they keep stacking the box, our backs will eventually break through with no one left back there. Either that or Sanchez will find someone wide open.
and the home of the... JETS!!!
www.ganggreennation.com
Straighten up and fly right.
Yup, the benefit of having multiple weapons at every position on offense
Something that is new for us this year ; )
Gang Green Nation Managing Editor --- covering all things NY Jets!
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Matt, Good Post
You’re much better at “game spin” than “Deadspin”.
Welcome back (from the dark side) to the bright side!
Thanks
This is me trying to look up some stats in breaking the game down ; )
Gang Green Nation Managing Editor --- covering all things NY Jets!
SB Nation(.Com) Contributing Writer
Love this Photo
This picture is almost as funny as the one with Sanchez in a robe. Thanks for bringing humor to the site!
Double Move & Pump Fake
Since the Broncos are going to commit to stopping the run and forcing Sanchez to beat them-I hope they run it 50+ times and let Sanchez use the pump fake and double moves by receivers (much like the BE TD against Buffalo) to make efficient throws and big plays.
That and some play actions should be enough for a W.
The JETS should be able to take advantage of all the Broncos injuries and catch the secondary up on the line and beat them for a few big plays.
The JETS should be able to continue the offensive scoring and put up ~30 points.
Hopefully Rex and Pettine will tone down the arrogance and let the DB’s play to their strengths, i.e. not playing Wilson, Lowery, and Coleman on straight man. It’s okay to play Revis and Cro on press man, but the other guys don’t have the same skills. Not everyone is capable of playing like those two. Just b/c they’re in your system doesn’t mean they’ll become Revis!
You guys are forgetting something
I know that we’re all excited about the blowout that’s about to occur at the Broncos’ expense, and the 5-1 record going into the bye which renders this game a mere formality now that the team has safely arrived in Denver. And all I hear is talk about our #1 running game and Denver’s 25th ranked run defense. It’s comforting to note that all we need this week is for LD to lace up his cleats and we fly home riding a 5 game win streak.
Unfortunately it’s not that simple. What no one’s talking about is Denver’s #1 ranked passing game vs our 23rd ranking against the pass. If this defense has a weakness, it’s clearly been blitzes not getting there and getting smoked in man coverage. And the inability to get off the field, even on 3rd & long. Speaking of 3rd down, only TWO teams have converted more 3rd downs this year than Denver. Not too promising for the Jets D. But it gets worse… Despite our 23rd ranking and futility against the pass this year, we haven’t even faced a top ten pass offense yet. So our secondary has essentially been picked apart by passing attacks that, in a word, suck. Denver’s does not.
In fact, if you averaged the ranking of the pass offenses we’ve faced in 5 games it comes out to 19th in the league. So explain to me, if our defense can’t stop the 19th ranked passing game, how are we going to stop the first?
This is my biggest fear too…especially if Revis it out, this might be a shoot-out. I like our offense either way, but if we have to throw because we can’t stop their passing game, I’m a little worried.
by Down Since '86 on Oct 16, 2010 6:45 PM EDT up reply actions
Really good post.
So explain to me, if our defense can’t stop the 19th ranked passing game, how are we going to stop the first?
Pretty easy. Almost ALL this damage has been done on 3rd and long {8+ yards), where QBs from the 4 good teams we have faced have a 129 QB rating (absurdly so). if Rex just stops blitzing big on 3rd and long, and the Jets play even a bit below average, the Jets would be one of the better pass defenses in the league.
"Sometimes it's the people. Any player can play defense, but not every player will play defense. Sometimes it's a lack of perseverance." - A. Johnson
by kv on Oct 16, 2010 8:03 PM EDT up reply actions
I agree that we need to pump the brakes on the blitzing. Don’t you miss those jailbreaks where 4 different defenders are immediately bearing down on a terrified QB who hurls the ball away indiscriminately in order to save his life? For whatever reason, that’s not happening anymore. This year, the blitz has done nothing but leave our secondary vulnerable in one on one coverage, which has been routinely abused.
by nationalist88 on Oct 16, 2010 8:47 PM EDT up reply actions
AN ANSWER
From before the season began we were told what made our blitz work was Revis shutting down half the field. Of course because of his injury that has not happened this year. I believe that Revis will not start the game, but will be brought in if we have problems and our running game is not sufficient keep the lead against their passing game. If our running game is working we will not see Revis this game. .
I have a bad feeling about this game...
It reminds me when we beat the undefeated Titans and we’re sitting at 8-3 and then we just got beat up by a bad Bronco’s team.
Anything can happen in a game.
While I had my doubts about almost all the games previous, I don’t have them here really. Its not that it can’t happen, but there are several things that the Jets should have control of if they play it smart. The only thing that would worry me is turnovers on the road.
"Sometimes it's the people. Any player can play defense, but not every player will play defense. Sometimes it's a lack of perseverance." - A. Johnson
by kv on Oct 16, 2010 10:54 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Altitude
Does anyone have any idea how many days it takes to adjust to the altitude at Invesco? They only flew in on Friday.
I moved to Boulder, CO
11 years ago from New York. It takes about 7-10 days to adjust completely but I’ve heard people say everything from 48hrs to 3 weeks. You definitely feel the change at first but it was a smart move to come out Friday, the longer you’re here, the lesser the effect. With the shape these guys are in the only real danger I see is fading late in the thin air but hopefully we’ll be ahead by too much to care by then.
In Rex We Trust
by whatwouldjohncandydo on Oct 17, 2010 2:49 PM EDT up reply actions
Rex will ease off the blitz this week in 3rd & long (unless they obviously can't handle it).
Im thinking we’ll see a lot of 3-3-5 and 3-2-6, even on earlier downs, and dare them to run it. This is the week to play a lot of coverage and prevent the big play. Their only shot is to hit big plays in the passing game.
Pound it out with Greene and LD. Keep Sanchez’s attempts down and his down & distances favorable, and we win this going away.
38-17 Jets.
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