Kerry Rhodes had a Good Season
I don’t get the hate for Rhodes’ season? Wait, that’s not accurate, I get it. Rhodes was "benched" in the middle of season and his "numbers" were down, thus the logic is he must have been bad this season. However, there are problems with both of the aforementioned points.
1) Rhodes was "benched"
Rhodes was benched for just one game, week 12 against Carolina where he played in only 23% of defensive snaps. He then played in 59% of snaps in week 13 and 65% of snaps in week 14. So, while he was benched, he still was contributing and had some pretty good games in limited play. However, it’s important to note that Rhodes wasn’t benched because he was playing poorly, but because he wasn’t playing up to his awesome standards having a span of average weeks before the benching. Check out Rhodes’ week by week defensive ratings via profootballfocus.com.
While I can't say what was going through Rex's mind, it seems like he benched Kerry against Carolina because it was the perfect time to motivate him to play better than just just slightly above average and what better time than against a mangled Panthers pass attack. The best part of the benching is it appeared to have worked as Rhodes came on much stronger after the benching.2) Kerry's "numbers" were down
Too many fans look at the fact that Rhodes' didn't record a sack and only had three interceptions and decide he didn't have a good year. It's amazing how 5 more sacks and 1 more interception (Kerry's 06 season) changes the perception of him from a fan favorite to not meeting his potential and should be possibly cut or traded. There is plenty more to being a defensive player than these counting stats. Elvis Dumervil led the league in sacks but was awful against the run; similarly Asante Samuel had 50% more INT than Revis but wasn't even close to having as good of a season.
While Rhodes' didn't have any sacks, he was second for safeties with 8 QB pressures and was third in QB hits. The two safeties ahead of him were Roman Harper and Brandon McGowan. Lucky for us, these three men were also targeted by QB nearly the same number of times, which allows for an excellent comparison. The QB rating for passes thrown at players the safeties were covering was 93.9, 114.8 and 55.2. Guess which safety was the owner of the 55.2 QB rating. Overall, Kerry was ranked by profootballfocus as the fourth best safety in pass coverage and the fifth best against the run. When you're good at every aspect of your game but not the best at any giving area, you get overlooked. Putting all aspects of Kerry's game together, profootballfocus ranks Kerry's season as the second best for all safeties last year, behind only one Edward Reed.
Kerry was an important part of the number one ranked defense in the NFL this year even though conventional numbers don't show it. Sacks and INT are memorable but having those occurrences happen 6 less times over the course of a full season is so much less important than what a player does in the other 903 snaps he's on the field.
Don't hate, appreciate greatness.
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These numbers don't mean shit.
I couldn’t care less about his rating by week. This isn’t baseball, sabermetric scientific stats don’t work. Ask San Diego, all they did was spit science out at us all week, and they got throttled because science doesn’t measure heart, intimidation, size, strength, etc. Baseball is a non contact sport where similar situations repeat themselves 1000’s of times over. Football is a contact sport where this isn’t the case. What I saw this year was Rhodes miss a lot of tackles, Rhodes late on a ton of pass plays in his area, Rhodes get burned a lot fo times in man coverage, and Rhodes shy away from sticking his helmet in there and hitting somebody. I don’t care what any scientific stats say, Rhodes stunk for the first 2/3 of the season. He picked it up later on, after he lost his starting job, but he hardly had a good season. Far from it.
I’m pretty sure it isn’t the sacks that people are annoyed about. Rhodes was a different player in 2006. He made plays, he was a difference maker. No he is just a guy who is kind of good. He got paid and it seems like he didn’t want to hit, he didn’t do a good job in the film room, because he was always in the wrong spot, he would frequently get beat in man coverage, he missed a ton of tackles, he was always late to meet a wideout making a reception. He did not have a good year. He picked it up in the last 4 or 5 weeks, and then in the playoffs, but he was a liability from week one up until about week 14.
"Relax, all right? Don't try to strike everybody out. Strikeouts are boring; besides that, they're fascist. Throw some ground balls. It's more democratic."
- CRASH DAVIS
I agree with the mitigating circumstances around a contact sport like football makes it near impossible to use stats. However we have to remember that these stats are based on someone else’s opinion as well. They have to decide what was and was not a missed tackle, they have to distinguish who Kerry was covering, was it zone was it not, was a player open in Kerry’s coverage and dropped the ball, something that on the stat sheet will count for Kerry but in reality it should go against him. Just look at errors in baseball, it’s all personal opinion when it comes down to it. Personally I trust my own judgement over someone else’s, that’s just me personally, other are welcome to do otherwise.
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New York Jets
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Probably my last comment here,
but I just wanted to point out that for all the DVOA talk with the Chargers. The Jets were actually ranked higher than SD by DVOA.
While I understand your points, believe me I’ve been hearing them for years, you should check out the work being done by footballoutsiders, profootballfocus and many others because they make adjustments for many of your claims. No one should take their numbers and what they say as gospel as, of course, there are other elements to take into account but you’d be surprised, how much you can learn about football and just how often you can crush your friends in fantasy football as well as beat Vegas in actual football. There’s no right way to enjoy sports and I wouldn’t ever say that my opinion is the correct one, but judging from the response I got here, you guys don’t enjoy reading this kind of stuff, which is fine, some people say cucumbers taste better pickeled. What’s important is the J-E-T-S, enjoy next season guys.
The causative relationship is that talent (plus luck) leads to wins. And that talent (plus service time) leads to payrolls.
I’m sure some will read and enjoy what you said, I enjoyed your post, I just didn’t agree with it. Very insightful, and believe it or not, I do read all those sites you mentioned, and have been in contact with a couple of people who work for them to try and get to grips with their system. It’s just the way I watch football, not a big fantasy football player and I don’t gamble so what I learn and see in football is for enjoyment purposes only. I know there are plenty of people on here that enjoy the stat based discussions. There are an equal amount who don’t put too much emphasis into it, that’s not to say they are not interested in what you have to say. I’m always interested in what others have to say, which is why I read this post and have talked to people from Pro football focus etc from what I have learned I just don’t believe that you can base and dissect a physical game like football on a computer. Like I say it;s just personal opinion and preference. So no need to leave because two out of a few hundred don’t agree with your principle argument.
Writer/Assistant editor
Eternal optimist
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I think you guys both make good points. PFF is one of my favorite sites, and I do take what they say into account for player evaluations. In many cases, they are excellent.
There are also cases when I don’t really see where they’re coming from, and human error seems to come into play. They gave Revis a negative grade in Week 17 when Chad Johnson had no catches on him.
Editor-In-Chief
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I agree that stats can be relevant...
But I agree with David and nrmax88 that its very difficult to determine the accuracy of the stat in football bc of all the variables. Eg player makes a tackle but gave up the complation; or broke up the pass but should have gotten the pick. Sometimes stats can have value but often they don’t provide the whole picture. And I find that most people use a result-oriented aproach where people aren’t taking an objective approach but are using stats to support their preconceived opinion. Im not saying that you did this, but it is hard to have watched every game this year and say Rhodes played well.
IMO, he left too many plays on the field; seemed like he was always late on arrival and never made his presence felt.
Your problem here
You write this:
No one should take their numbers and what they say as gospel as, of course
But the whole post is dedicated to one outlet’s advanced statistical analysis. There’s no mention of any scouting reports or similar analysis. The whole post is predicated on the straw man that anyone who wasn’t impressed with Rhodes’s performance is only looking at sacks and INT’s, which is not true. I’m the last person to say “do you even watch the games?”, but in this case it seems somewhat legitimate.
I follow all the advanced football stats, read Football Outsiders, etc., but I also watch the games and read what people smarter than I thought about his play. I’d say he had an averageish season. Not great, not bad.
I also take exception to how elitist your comment is. Just read it again. Also, if you can beat Vegas with this stuff, why not become a professional gambler? Why spending time on football message boards writing about DVOA? Should be counting the millions you made in football betting this year.
by James Kannengieser on Jan 26, 2010 7:09 PM EST up reply actions
Hey James,
I realize that this post isn’t up to snuff and the writing style was def too definitive. I wrote it quickly on a lunch break because I was surprised when I looked up Rhodes number that he faired so well. I was under the impression that Rhodes didn’t have a great season but the numbers say he did, thus I wrote the post. I didn’t mean for this post to be a definitve Kerry was awesome because I didn’t have time to look at all aspects of him (such as scoutig and such.) More I would have hoped that this post would led to larger discussion if convential wisdom perhaps underrated Rhodes season but once I saw that this post led to “watch the game” and “stats dont mean shit” I decided to try to backpedal and get out of here in the most civil way possible rather than be pulled into a stat arguement.
I just want to re-iterate that I did not mean for my comment to come off elitish, I really do respect how anyone chooses to enjoy sports. In regards to vegas, again this is another part where I didn’t go into enough detail and I guess came off elitish not thinking about how it sounded. The perfect time to beat vegas is when the popular consensus overrates and underrates another, the numbers can show this; however, in a one game sample, anything can happen, so obviously it would be foolish to try to make consistent money on this.
Once again, I posted this post to generate discussion and in that I succeed; however, the discussion was more about Kerry rather than why stats fail in football. So, like I commented before, apologies all around.
The causative relationship is that talent (plus luck) leads to wins. And that talent (plus service time) leads to payrolls.
It was a good writeup, but too definitive, as you noted
It’s like someone writing “Ben Zobrist was better than Joe Mauer last season because had a higher WAR” and not even factoring anything else. I think that’s why it elicited such a response. It’s one thing to say “this stat says _ about Kerry and here’s why; now let’s talk about it”, it’s another to say “this stat says ____ about Kerry and that’s the last word, he’s fantastic, don’t hate”.
by James Kannengieser on Jan 26, 2010 7:43 PM EST up reply actions
I agree with what you're saying
Honestly, I probably would have ended the post differently if I didnt find that picture of him. It just seemed like a way to end with a picture like that.
The causative relationship is that talent (plus luck) leads to wins. And that talent (plus service time) leads to payrolls.
Lol
The QB rating for passes thrown at players the safeties were covering was 93.9, 114.8 and 55.2. Guess which safety was the owner of the 55.2 QB rating.
That couldn’t possibly be because the Jets have a great defense where nobody passed on them all year, where the Pats and Saints defenses suck? Lol. Put Kerry Rhodes in New England or New Orleans and I will bet every penny that I have the QB rating when going after him is miles and miles above 50. Could it be that because the Jets put so much pressure on the QB that he didn’t have a high QB rating too anybody?
"Relax, all right? Don't try to strike everybody out. Strikeouts are boring; besides that, they're fascist. Throw some ground balls. It's more democratic."
- CRASH DAVIS
Yes and no,
Yes, the Jets D was great, but part of that reason was because Kerry was in it. It’s true that putting better players around a player could make him perform better, but that’s my point you have to look at all aspects of a players game to get the complete picture.
The causative relationship is that talent (plus luck) leads to wins. And that talent (plus service time) leads to payrolls.
I think that
“It’s true that putting better players around a player could make him perform better, but that’s my point you have to look at all aspects of a players game to get the complete picture.
this is part of the reason stats are so much more meaningful in baseball. Based on what you do as an individual. The first baseman can’t help you out when you are up in the box by yourself. You can’t roll coverage to your number 8 hitter to help him out with his mismatch. Coaching and team play is much more important in football, and we don’t have stats for those things.
"Relax, all right? Don't try to strike everybody out. Strikeouts are boring; besides that, they're fascist. Throw some ground balls. It's more democratic."
- CRASH DAVIS
Kerry didn’t have a good season, I’m not a stats man, but watching every game it was obvious, throw as many stats out there as you like, if you watched all 19 games this season, I don’t think you can say that he had a good season.
Writer/Assistant editor
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New York Jets
Gang Green Nation
www.ganggreennation.com
Exactly.
And I love Kerry, I want him too do good. He just didn’t have a good season. This isn’t baseball where opinions are all based on stats and you can bring up wOBA to prove that a guy had a solid season even though he only batted .230. Football just doesn’t work like that.
"Relax, all right? Don't try to strike everybody out. Strikeouts are boring; besides that, they're fascist. Throw some ground balls. It's more democratic."
- CRASH DAVIS
Just for reference,
I did watch every minute of every game but I’m not naive enough to assume that a sideline view that only follows the ball and covers 10 yards from the line of scrimmage as well as it being impossible to remember every play in a giving season is better than statistics. Remember, statistics are just a record of actual events. But if this blog doesn’t enjoy reading alternative analysis than what you can get from cliched sportswriters, than I apologize for wasting your time and will stop posting here.
The causative relationship is that talent (plus luck) leads to wins. And that talent (plus service time) leads to payrolls.
You can post what you like, but if you take offence to people with differentiating opinions then obviously an open forum for discussion might not the best arena for you. Just like we are saying don’t throw the stats because they are barely half of what goes on during a football feld you are more than welcome to say otherwise. Just don’t people are always going to agree with you. Stats have there place, more so in baseball than football, I’m saying from what I saw, from his range/contact/hits he didn’t have a good season in this D. It seems like Rex may agree with that as well.
Writer/Assistant editor
Eternal optimist
New York Jets
Gang Green Nation
www.ganggreennation.com
I'm all for discouse, love it
and I enjoy when people disagree with me but when the counterargument is “if you watched all 19 games this season, I don’t think you can say that he had a good season” or “the numbers don’t mean shit” I see this is a forum is probably not cup of tea. Cheers!
The causative relationship is that talent (plus luck) leads to wins. And that talent (plus service time) leads to payrolls.
If we had game footage we could sit through it and actually break it down and I could show you why I feel he didn’t have a good season. Unfortunately when you speak against stats, there is no concrete evidence that you can readily provide to back up your opinion.
Writer/Assistant editor
Eternal optimist
New York Jets
Gang Green Nation
www.ganggreennation.com
Don't be like that.
Again, if we were talking baseball, yeah, I am a stats guy. Baseball is a sport based on events repeating themselves over and over. A batter goes through a similar routine 500 or 600 times a year when he comes to bat. A pitcher does the same, as do the fielders. Football is just so much different, you can’t measure with stats why Kerry Rhodes was late covering the middle of the field and why he didn’t put a lick on a guy like he did two three years ago. I just think football is far more difficult to quantify with stats then baseball. You know, stats can’t account for a guy dropping a ball over the middle because he thought Bart Scott was closer then he actually was and he feared he was going to get his head taken off. I think stats tell you a whole lot more about baseball then they do about football. When it comes to baseball I love the scientific stuff, that’s why I started going to AA. When it comes to football though, I just think it the stats leave out a lot. I know that watching Rhodes, in 2010, he looked different on the sideline view of my TV then he did in 2006. In 2006, he was breaking more plays up, if a guy made a catch he was right on top of him, if a ball was thrown near him he jumped it. He just seems a bit more tentative for whatever reason, and again, stats can quantify so much more in baseball then in football.
"Relax, all right? Don't try to strike everybody out. Strikeouts are boring; besides that, they're fascist. Throw some ground balls. It's more democratic."
- CRASH DAVIS
Yeah
And this is the same guy that will whine on Amazin’ Avenue about saber-inclined baseball fans being too snooty, elitist and snarky. Gimme a f*ckin’ break.
by James Kannengieser on Jan 26, 2010 7:11 PM EST up reply actions
Wow dude sorry
I didn’t realize you consider me a whiner. I tried to answer your concerns above, I really didn’t mean to come off like a dick and really didn’t realize it. I’m not being elitist when I apologized to this forum, that’s really sincere as the first few comments really didn’t seem to enjoy what I wrote.
The causative relationship is that talent (plus luck) leads to wins. And that talent (plus service time) leads to payrolls.
Really,
To quote Bill Murray: “Lighten up, Francis”
Personally I enjoyed the post. Unfortunately, living in PA, I don’t get to see all the Jets games (Sunday Ticket next year maybe), but I think Rhodes had a good year. OK, so he wasn’t as great as he was three years ago. That doesn’t mean this year sucked.
BTW I voted No in the Kerry for Osi poll.
Go Jets
Go Devils
i thought it was really interesting
for what its worth
i will say that as a fan, I don’t rewatch game tape after games. i don’t know how players ‘grade out’. i think i see more than a casual fan, but i also recognize there is more to the game than what i see.
i agree baseball and football are very different for stats – i’ve made this argument myself, but i do think there is a lot to be gained from the stats perspective. it clearly misses how weak some of the ‘hits’ rhodes put on this year were, but it also elucidates things we might not have seen otherwise.
keep the advanced stats coming!
F__K stats
watching the game it seemed like he was always out of position. When he sacked Philip Rivers, he didn’t even try to recover the fumble, instead taking the opportunity to brag what he done. He is a great tackler, but i think the jets need a ball hawk at safety. Someone to make teams pay for going deep.
he sucked up until he benching
although i think we should keep him. He was great on clark and gonzalez
JETS
External optimist
Internal pessimist
Nope
Don’t think Rhodes had a good season. This year, he was constantly out of position, and it seemed as if he couldn’t make a decision as to which receiver to cover when confronted with 2 receivers in his zone. If you want to see a perfect example of it, watch the colts game when Collie an Clarke scored. He doesn’t know who to lock on to. Rhodes puts himself in a position that by the time he could make a move, the receiver had already scored. That’s just the way this season went for him. As far as his Int’s go. He had 2 in one game, and both of them were very poorly thrown balls in which they hit him in the chest without the receiver being within 3 yards of him. Hopefully Rhodes will learn from his year, work hard in the offseason, and study the secondary assignments so he isn’t out of place.
The Collie TD was the worst for me. He seems to be waiting for a RB to come into the flat, only to look back and think.. Whoops. I guess i should have covered that guy.

























