A Statistical Look at Sanchez

by John B on Jan 19, 2010 10:00 AM EST

Our friend Larry asks whether Mark Sanchez is the greatest rookie Playoff quarterback of all time on his statistical blog.

So far, among rookie QBs in NFL history, Sanchez has the highest total playoff rating as well as the highest playoff rating in a single game. Although his performance against San Diego was nothing special, he did enough to win. Like Philip Rivers, his counterpart, he only really made one bad decision. In each case, they resulted in interceptions. Unlike Rivers, Sanchez has Darrelle Revis on his team, who made a fantastic play for Rivers’ other interception. We’ll see if Sanchez and the Jets can continue their success, but so far, Sanchez looks like he’s trying to make his claim to best rookie QB to start a playoff game.

To be fair there isn't a ton of competition. Not too many rookies have started Playoff games. Teams with rookie quarterbacks starting usually aren't very good. They're just trying to get a young player some experience. Clubs with a lot of talent don't want to be held back by a guy taking on the job training.

With that said, Sanchez was terrific against the Bengals. Against San Diego Larry points out he didn't do a ton. The important thing is he has looked comfortable and confident. He looked overwhelmed at times in the middle of the regular season. The Colts game seemed to be a turning point. Mark realized how good his defense and run game are. If he avoids making dumb decisions, the Jets have a great shot at winning. The Jets don't need him to do much, which makes his situation a lot easier than many rookies have.

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The thing is the Colts defense worries me since they are built on allowing the small gains and then pouncing when a mistake is made. I worry that this success he has had might give Sanchez and perhaps the coaching staff some overconfidence and might drive him to try to make slightly more risky plays than he has lately. Plus, I think we might be building up his performance against SD a bit more than we should. I’d say about half his incompletions or at least 3 or 4 of them should have been completions if he had decided to check down rather than try to force it further down the field. It’s certainly a big improvement from the horrible lapses in judgment we used to see, but let’s not get ahead of ourselves.

So as much as I sometimes get frustrated with the extremely conservative playcalling we get from Schotty, this is a game where I totally agree that that is the way we should go. We need to just take what they give us and wear them down with the running game. And like, I’d say let’s not really bother with the trickery anymore; Indy’s D is way too fast to run those successfully against them. We just gotta punch them in the mouth.

by Exystence on Jan 19, 2010 11:07 AM EST reply actions

I agree for the most part.

I see most of his success as being derivative of the run game. When we’re running well and can work play-action, he gets more space to work in and some easy throws.

We ran well the entire Bengal game and he played well the enire game. We didnt really get the run game going until the second half of the Charger game and thats when things got going for Mark.

When I see him working well when the running game isn’t working, then I’ll announce his arrival. But right now we don’t need him to play well to win; we just need him to not play badly.

by Crackback on Jan 19, 2010 11:53 AM EST reply actions

Well...

…it certainly helps his case that he’s achieved a feat matched only by Joe Flacco.

But it also doesn’t hurt having Shonn Greene going bonkers, either.

by V. Money on Jan 19, 2010 1:07 PM EST reply actions

Shawn King, Ben Roethlisberger and Joe Flacco are the only other Rookie’s to win playoff games other then Sanchez. We are all aware of this…obviously.

Here is the thing that is interesting about all 3 before Sanchez….All three led their teams to the Championship Games, King- TB vs. STL in 99, Big Ben- Pitt vs. NE in 2004 and Flacco- Balt vs. Pitt in 08 and they all lost. So to me the only way Sanchez becomes the “best rookie QB in playoff history” is if the Jets make the Super Bowl. I know Ben and King won 1 game at home before the Title games, but still each QB has been stopped in the same spot, so to me, its all the same

Cheering for the "Wrong" New York Teams Since 1995

by Jetsmets321 on Jan 19, 2010 3:32 PM EST reply actions

Obviously, it’s premature to say for sure that Sanchez is the best rookie playoff QB, but his statistics in the playoffs so far have been better than any other QB’s playoff stats have been. Of course, he is helped by a great run game and defense. But, with the exception of one bad decision, I think he’s been very solid in what he has been asked to do. Sure, he’s not carrying his team, but that’s not his job right now. We can unequivically say that no rookie QB has carried his team in any playoff game yet, either, so I don’t see that as an indictment on Sanchez.

For ideas on statistical analyses, email me at wolfpacksteelersfan@gmail.com.

by WolfpackSteelersFan on Jan 19, 2010 7:11 PM EST reply actions