A Statistical Look at the Game

by John B on Sep 28, 2009 12:00 PM EDT

Our favorite statistical football blog breaks down Sunday's performance.

The Jets’ defense did an great job on the Titans’ offense, holding them below their average offensive output in just about every category. Most significantly, the Jets forced the Titans into 4 TOs, 2 INTs and 2 Fumbles Lost, both over 200% more than the Titans average. In total yards, rush yards, and passing yards, the Jets held the Titans about 10% below Tennessee’s averages for each category.

I think this is a great approach to breaking down the game. Football does not occur in a vacuum.There is an opponent on the field capable of executing. Taking a look at how the Titans did relative to their averages indicates just how effective the Jets were. In this case, it looks like the defense was extremely effective. Definitely give the rest of the post a look over. It's informative stuff.

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Interesting take

Thanks for the link. A couple of issues:

1) I think the author should have done the same for Special teams (analyzing avg. vs. game etc) since the Jets won because of their special teams (or the not so special teams of Tenn)

2) The problem with comparing a game to a team’s avg. is it doesn’t account for turnover from season to season. This should be less of a problem once the author stops using 2008 numbers (given how different the Jets seem to be under Rex vs. Manscrewup).

by Psych on Sep 28, 2009 2:09 PM EDT reply actions

Thanks for the input

I think you have a good point about the Special teams. In several close games, I’ve had to make points about how the special teams impacted win. I don’t have things set up to do that yet, but it is a worthwhile change to add as soon as I’m able.

Your second point is certainly valid, but as you say, it will rectify itself once there is enough 2009 data to use current year averages exclusively. My rationale for using 2008 averages is that every prediction is a combination of last year’s performance and certain changes to the team. Since there aren’t really enough statistics to reflect the changes (and we don’t know what those changes will be), last year’s stats the best I have until a certain point of the season.

For ideas on statistical analyses, email me at wolfpacksteelersfan@gmail.com.

by WolfpackSteelersFan on Sep 28, 2009 4:17 PM EDT up reply actions

Yeah, I don’t have a good suggestion for the last year/change of program issue. Though, it would be interesting to see if some changes (ex. new head coach or QB) make more of a difference than the general type of changes one expects each season. It would be a lot of work and I’m not sure it’s worth it. OTOH, I wonder if one could make a crude adjustment based on total number of new starters. For example, if there’s a (note: unrealistic example ahead just for illustration) a 50% change in starters for team X then weigh the current season games heavier than if there is a 10% change in starters. Adjust for key positions, QB, Head Coach, Nose Tackle…) Again, probably way too much work and I’m not even sure it would work. Anyway, again, thanks for the analysis.

by Psych on Sep 28, 2009 11:10 PM EDT up reply actions

I see what you’re saying. I don’t think that adjusting the weighting would be a problem. The main issue in my mind is that you just don’t know what impact the changes will have until a few games are in the books for the new season. For example, if you replace five aging veterans on defense with 1st or 2nd year players, the defense will suffer if those new guys make a few mistakes. But, if they are very intelligent and studious, they may improve the defense significantly. If there is a change in a QB or HC, one could review previous stats for that person (i.e. QB numbers, run/pass balance for HC’s former teams) and try to make some adjustment. But, still, that would not account for differences in personnel from team to team, and you could only do that for a player or coach who was a veteran. Some ideas to think about for me.

Glad you liked the post. :)

For ideas on statistical analyses, email me at wolfpacksteelersfan@gmail.com.

by WolfpackSteelersFan on Sep 29, 2009 10:02 AM EDT up reply actions

Still Worried About Running Game

John B, while very happy overall with the O, I am still concerned about our inability to get a ground game going (see my comments on 9/20 post-Pats game, when folks here made fun of me). If this team has to rely almost exclusively on Sanchez (he’s damn good, but not a miracle worker) and turnovers, we WILL blow up. Where is Shonn Green? Time to split time with TJ, IMHO.

by Brooklyn Joe on Sep 28, 2009 2:34 PM EDT reply actions

saints fan here

congrats on a big win, cant wait to see you guys on sunday!! gona be a big game.

do you think your run struggles are a result of the defenses you have faced, scheme or a lack of prodution?

by sernycrusher on Sep 28, 2009 4:00 PM EDT reply actions

To Saints Fan

I think it’s likely a coaching thing more than anything else. A question of emphasis and game plan — we have the talent. That said, the TE’s have been less than stellar in their blocking and,I think, have been underutilized in this regard. Should be a great game Sunday.

by Brooklyn Joe on Sep 29, 2009 12:44 PM EDT up reply actions