Curse of 370 Shows Value of RB Depth

by John B on Jul 19, 2009 10:26 AM EDT

ESPN has a piece on the poor track record of running backs the year after they carry the ball over 370 times.

That's right, folks, there's such a thing as the "Curse of 370," the 370, of course, serving as a defined number of a player's regular-season rushing attempts. The curse dictates that any player who exceeds that benchmark suffers a significant drop-off in production the following season, even if he doesn't get hurt and miss time in said season. Much like baseball has pitch counts, football seemingly has "carry counts." Blow past the recommended number, and suffer the consequences in subsequent seasons.

Not that I'd claim it's any invention of mine; the curse has been oft-discussed in the fantasy football industry for more than five years now, dating back at least to 2004, when it appeared on FootballOutsiders.com. But those who have followed my work on these pages know I'm not one to take blanket statements as gospel without first checking the facts, and that I'm not opposed to playing a trend if backed by sufficient evidence.

Well, I've checked the historical data, and let me say that I'm fully behind the existence of a curse. In the history of the NFL, 27 running backs have amassed 370 or more carries in a season … and all but one of them declined in terms of total fantasy points the next year. (That one, LaDainian Tomlinson, somehow escaped the clutches of the curse despite 372 rushing attempts in 2002.)

I'm not sure calling it a curse is really accurate. A curse implies bad performance is unexplained, even controlled by supernatural forces. It's pretty obvious why this trend occurs. Backs eventually wear down after taking too much of a pounding. A lot of people have said taking Shonn Greene was overkill because the Jets had considerable depth in the backfield. This article helps explain one rationale. Teams that want to pound the football (say because they have a rookie quarterback) are smart to add as much running back depth as possible to spread out the workload.

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also, i find it ridiculous that there would be a lot of thought put into this theory

there are only three possible outcomes for a running back’s production from year to year:
1)RB declines
2)RB stays the same
3)RB improves

Seriously, it’s just about impossible to remain exactly statistically the same from year to year, so that leaves only two possible outcomes.

At this point, you’re flipping a freakin’ coin.

This theory is garbage, if you ask me, if taken on a strictly year-to-year basis.

HOWEVER, if you think about it over the course of several years…. for example, Ray Rice carried Rutgers for 3 straight years. Three! Though he may be younger than Shonn Greene, Greene only carried his team for one year, and saw the field in very limited fashion (read: not at all in 2007) before this past season.

Greene will be fine. He is a horse.

"Welcome to Tangares base. You’re just in time for the dance party. I’ve arranged a dancing partner for you. DANCE TO THE DEATH!" -Time Crisis

by psuwxman on Jul 20, 2009 5:20 PM EDT reply actions

And my point with Ray Rice

is that I think he will decline much faster than Greene will over the course of their careers, even though they are both in shared backfields.

Also, Rice is much smaller; his body type is not the prototypical size for an every-down back, and he was his entire offensive attack (just about) for about 2 years of his 3 as a “starter” (Brian Leonard). Shonn Greene has great size.

"Welcome to Tangares base. You’re just in time for the dance party. I’ve arranged a dancing partner for you. DANCE TO THE DEATH!" -Time Crisis

by psuwxman on Jul 20, 2009 5:23 PM EDT up reply actions

Unproven......

A yo , Greene is a unproven RB in the NFL ,I’m saying how the hell can anybody compare his college days to the NFL, it make’s no sense give him a chance to play first .We dont know ?, Greene could be the pounding RB gang green needs he’s got the size to soften up the D.F he could be another Martin in the ruff hopefully not a bust! (whats the hold up on Leon back up the truck and dump the money Woody !!) >>>OVER AND OUT BOMBERJET!!

by bomberjet on Jul 21, 2009 8:35 AM EDT reply actions