New York Jets Run Offense vs. Indianapolis Colts Run Defense

by John B on Dec 26, 2009 12:33 PM EST

Two games stick out in my mind when thinking about this matchup. The first came in Week 2. The Dolphins lost to the Colts, but they dominated Indianapolis on the ground. They ran for 239 yards, a 4.9 average, and held the ball for 45:00 even though they lacked the ability to make big plays in the passing game, and the Colts knew Miami was going to try and pound it. The second was in the 2006 Playoffs. The Chiefs ran for 44 yards on 17 carries even with Larry Johnson enjoying a monster season. The Jets have a similar power running game and will focus almost exclusively on it. The way the Colts defend it will determine whether New York has a chance.

The Jets need to control the ball and the clock. Peyton Manning can't score if he doesn't have the ball. If the Jets have close to the success Miami had, Manning won't be able to save the Colts. It took a perfect game by him in Week 2. That will be a lot tougher to do against New York's defense. Doing so is easier said than done, though.

The Colts give up a lot of yards but not many points. They force turnovers and stiffen in the red zone. This presents a catch 22 for the Jets. Shonn Greene is the back most capable of pounding out tough yardage, but his fumble issues are scary. Again, New York cannot give Manning any help.

The Colts are very fast up front. That can present some problems in the passing game for the Jets. They also sacrifice size for that speed. That could be good in the run game. The Jets are a power team on the ground. It will depend whether the Colts get off the line quickly enough to gain leverage. If they don't, New York's linemen can steamroll them. Their starting linebackers are all in the 235-240 pound range. Their ends are giving a lot of weight to New York's tackles. They're also without Bob Sanders, their most valuable defender, who is out for the season. On paper, the Jets seem to have the edge. You know Indy will do everything possible to take away the run, even if it means stacking nine men in the box. Can the Jets' vaunted offensive line use its size to impose its will anyway? The answer could decide the game.

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Let's be honest - the red zone is where it will count

Angel’s Faith described the Colts defense as bend but don’t break, meaning that they toughen up in the red zone. The Colts’ whole game plan is based on Peyton Manning torching you quick – and on causing frustration in that maybe you spend 6-7 minutes on a drive to end up with 3 points, and then bammo! All of a sudden it’s 3-7.
Which means that unless the Colts’ offense is having an off day (which it usually doesn’t and you can’t rely on it happening), you have to make sure your drives turn into touchdowns. So I see red zone play as a key factor.
Against Atlanta (yes, Atlanta, who were run all over by the Eagles’ Weaver, who while a decent player is not a top-rated back) our running game, supposedly our strong point, royally stunk. When Thomas Jones is held to under 3.5 yards a carry there’s no other word for it. As for Greene, he was 7-28 overall, which was decent, but it seemed like when it mattered the most he couldn’t get very far.
Our run blocking has to be very good in order for this part of our offense to work when it counts – inside the Colts 20.
We are kind of short of depth at running back with Leon out, although Brad Smith has shown he can make some decent scrambles at times.
Dream scenario: Jones goes 20-110 and Greene is 12-60, plus a few surprising scrambles (without head first dives) by Sanchez and Smith.
Nightmare scenario: Jones is stuffed and Greene fumbles.

by Rabbit T on Dec 27, 2009 8:10 AM EST reply actions