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How to Beat the Cheats-- Sunday Preview

Currently sitting at 4-5, coming off a couple of gut-wrenching losses, the J-E-T-S know a win on Sunday is the only way to stay in the playoff hunt and try to save this disappointing season. Fitting that it would take place in Foxborough.

To win It will take a full-team effort, similar to what was put forth in the week 2 matchup. Unfortunately, this is a much-improved team since week two as it seems like Brady has effectively shook off all the cobwebs, and Welker didn’t play in that game either.

On the plus side, the Jets catch them in a bad spot after blowing the game in Indy, which not only may take a toll on them mentally, but also physically. They have TWELVE guys questionable for the game on Sunday, the majority of them being defensive reserves, but if anything, they will be thin as far as depth goes.  That being said, with all the motivation driving NE (rivalry, revenge from week 2), I’m starting to think that losing to the Colts may just fuel them to play even harder.

How The Jets can win this game:

-Play mistake-free football & Limit the big pass play—I know, easier said then done,  but it’s the only way to beat teams that run spread offenses and can score at will like the Pats do.

-RUN THE BALL/Control the clock. This patriots team will be thin on Sunday and we have to make their starters work. If we can keep them on the field, it will force them to either over-play their first team, or bring in scrubs. Either way, it will set up the big play. We need to run to setup the pass on Sunday (FWIW, because of our secondary issues, they will probably look to do the opposite.)

-Get Pressure on Tom Brady and Flush him out of the pocket. The pass rush has to improve, and they have to make the secondary’s job easier by taking Brady out of any rhythm. This is how we won the first game. Let’s hope Light is out…will surely help.

Summary/Prediction:

The Jets played a perfect game in the first matchup. Revis was dominant in that game and held moss to only 4 catches/24 yards. Not sure he can reciprocate that, especially with all the "shutdown corner" banter fueling Moss. Edelman burned us in the first matchup and we didn’t even have to worry about Welker. Even if Leonhard plays, he’ll obviously be limited, and I just think it’s too many weapons for our secondary (which struggled w/ Mike Thomas n Co.) to handle. NE also has a lot of tape to look over since week 2, and Belichek is known for being one of the best regarding making adjustments.

Also, the Jets played Rhodes over-the-top for most of the first matchup to contain Moss, and if they do that again Welker and Edelman will have a field day underneath. They're going to have to play more aggressively.

Unfortunately,  I don’t think the pass-rush is going to suddenly wake up overnight because of one simple firing, and I think this banged up/new-look secondary will have their hands full. Lito is still nowhere near 100%, and when he’s not in, Lowery on Welker may get ugly. I think Sanchez will turn the ball over at least 2 times also.

Jets are also totally shifting around ST assignments, as it looks like Cotchery and Brad Smith will be returning kicks w/ Leonhard unavailable here.

As much as it pains me to say it, I think too many stars must align in order for the Jets to win this game. I give them about a 20% chance of coming away with the victory. 31-20, NE.

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20%

Did you ballpark it or have a system? Both ESPN simulations and Foxnews came within 1% of that estimate

by JetsFan1991 on Nov 21, 2009 1:57 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Both

I always start by ballparking, and thinking, if this game was played, with the current injury situations and circumstances, how many times would the jets win?

I came up with 4 or 5 (20%-25% of the time)

Then I looked at the vegas lines, which has them listed as +450 underdogs… meaning they’re a 5.5:1 dog. So vegas gives them roughly an 18% chance of winning.

I then settled on 20% of the time JETS WILL TAKE FLIGHT!!

Fireman Ed is the man!

by Matt Birch on Nov 21, 2009 4:46 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Typo

That should say “I came up with ONE OUT OF EVERY 4 or 5….”

So they would win every 1 out of every 4 or 5 times the game was played.

Fireman Ed is the man!

by Matt Birch on Nov 21, 2009 4:48 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Typo

Wrote “every” twice.

SMH, I give up. But you know what I was getting at.

Fireman Ed is the man!

by Matt Birch on Nov 21, 2009 4:50 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

I'm with you

thanks for the explanation

by JetsFan1991 on Nov 21, 2009 8:24 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

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